Coffee prices rose sharply on concern that heavy rain in Brazil will further disrupt the country’s coffee harvest and tighten global supplies. September arabica coffee gained 9.60 cents, or 3.06%, while September ICE robusta coffee added 33 dollars, or 0.88%. Somar Meteorologia reported that 32.4 millimeters of rain, or 2700% of the historical average, fell in the week ended July 26 in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s biggest coffee-growing region. The slow pace of Brazil’s harvest is supportive, with the Cooxupe co-op harvest 47.3% complete as of July 17, behind the year-earlier pace of 59%, and Safras & Mercado reporting Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s 77% and the five-year average of 70%. Last Friday, coffee prices had tumbled to three-week lows after the USDA forecast global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise 6% to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil, with global arabica production expected to rise 12% year-over-year and robusta production to fall 0.7%. Rising inventories weighed on robusta, with ICE robusta inventories climbing to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots last Wednesday, while a bullish factor for arabica was that ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 311,317 bags last Friday. Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are bullish, as coffee trader Commercial said El Niño may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, and the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño that emerged last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices, with Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports in the first half rising 7.3% year-over-year to 1.05 million metric tons and its 2025/26 production projected to climb 6% to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons.