Consumer confidence hit a historic low — but stock markets are rallying. Here's why the data may be wrong

Macro
โดย Moneywise·Read original
Summary · why it matters

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 49.5 in June, its lowest level since the survey began in 1952, even as stock markets rally to record highs and consumer spending continues to rise. The index dropped below readings during the worst of COVID-19, post-pandemic inflation, and the Great Recession, yet spending rose 0.9% month-over-month in May and The Conference Board's confidence gauge stood at 91.2. Some analysts argue the shift to online polling in 2024 may have skewed results negatively, while others point to a widening partisan gap in sentiment that now exceeds gaps by income, age, or education combined. RIA Advisors partner Lance Roberts noted that hard economic data such as retail sales, corporate earnings, and GDP growth all point in a positive direction, suggesting the survey is capturing tribal loyalty rather than economic reality.

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