Consumer sentiment rebounds from record lows in University of Michigan index

Macro
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The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 49.5 in June from May's record low of 44.8, snapping a three-month decline. Gains were broad across income, wealth, and political affiliation, with the expectations index climbing 15% to 50.7 and current conditions edging up to 47.7. Despite the improvement, sentiment remains the second lowest since the 1970s, 13% below pre-Iran conflict levels and nearly 20% lower than a year ago. More than half of respondents spontaneously cited high prices, and 36% named inflation as the top economic risk, the highest share since February 2025. Year-ahead inflation expectations dipped to 4.6% from 4.8%, while the five-to-ten-year outlook retreated to 3.3% after spiking to 3.9% in May. Survey director Joanne Hsu noted that falling gas prices offered some relief but consumers remain worried about inflation eroding living standards, though a 16% jump in the five-year business outlook suggests households see Iran conflict impacts as temporary.

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