The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release June Personal Consumption Expenditures data at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time today, with the core PCE index—which excludes food and energy—expected to be the most important inflation reading for Federal Reserve policy. Core PCE rose to 3.4% in May, the highest since October 2023, and the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast projects a slight easing to 3.33% for June before edging up to 3.36% in July. The stickiness of core PCE, even as headline inflation fell from 4.2% in May to 3.5% in June, suggests that Iran-war-driven energy disruptions are spilling into broader consumer prices. A hotter-than-expected core PCE figure could force Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the FOMC to consider multiple interest rate hikes, potentially disrupting the AI-driven stock market rally.