Deutsche Bank warns markets are pricing in a near-perfect Goldilocks scenario

Macro
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Deutsche Bank has warned that financial markets are pricing in a near-perfect Goldilocks scenario that may prove difficult to sustain. Macro strategist Henry Allen said risk assets remain strong with global equities near record levels, while rates markets assume central banks are close to completing their tightening cycles and commodity markets see supply disruptions as manageable. The bank outlined two potential paths that could challenge those assumptions: resilient growth and loosening financial conditions forcing more aggressive rate increases, or weakening growth undermining risk assets even without a recession. Deutsche Bank noted that Bloomberg's index of U.S. financial conditions recently reached its loosest level since 1996, while headline and core inflation remain above central bank targets across most major economies. The bank also highlighted supply disruptions as an additional vulnerability, warning that another supply shock could pressure both equities and bonds simultaneously.

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