Dollar Weakens, Yen Surges Near 7-Month High on BOJ Rate Hike Bets

MacroDigital Finance
โดย InfoQuest·JPUS·Read original
Summary · why it matters

The dollar weakened today, pressured by the yen's surge to near a 7-month high. The yen strengthened to 153.32 yen per dollar, close to the high of 152.89 yen per dollar set yesterday, and has risen 4% since the start of September. This has prompted investors to reassess the viability of yen carry trades amid expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise its interest rate by 0.25% to 1.25% at its September 17-18 meeting. Meanwhile, markets are focused on the release of the U.S. CPI index on Friday, with analysts expecting headline CPI to rise 3.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, while core CPI is expected to increase 2.4% year-on-year. The latest CME Group FedWatch Tool indicates that investors assign a 62.2% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 0.25% on September 16, and only a 37.8% probability that the Fed will hold rates at 3.50-3.75%.

Impact on stocks 3

Others± Mixed · 3 stocks
％United States Government Bond 10Y
US-10Y
▼ NegativeMonetaryrelevance

Fed rate hike expectations (62.2%) and upcoming CPI data suggest yields may rise, but dollar weakness pressures yields down; net negative due to flight to yen.

％Effective Federal Funds Rate
EFFR
▼ NegativeMonetaryrelevance

Fed rate hike expectations (62.2% probability) imply higher policy rate, but article focuses on dollar weakness due to yen strength; policy rate direction ambiguous, but yield likely to rise with hike expectations.

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