サンワード証券Private± Mixed
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Sanward Securities' Mr. Chen expects the dollar-yen pair to see its upside trimmed this week following the weak US employment report, and warns that intervention caution will intensify if the rate surpasses 162 yen. Last week, the pair surged to a 39-and-a-half-year high around 162.80 yen on US rate hike expectations, before tumbling to the 160.60 area on intervention fears in a volatile swing. The June nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000, far below the market forecast of 110,000, and according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point or larger rate hike at the July FOMC meeting has fallen to 19.8 percent. While some views are emerging to restrain expectations of an additional rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the dollar-bullish, yen-bearish trend continues, but profit-taking selling is likely to dominate on the upside due to intervention jitters. He forecasts this week's range at 158.50 to 162.50 yen.