Commerzbank analysts highlight that ECB President Lagarde has opened the door to a September rate hike, with sources suggesting euro area inflation must improve markedly to avoid tightening. The warning comes amid rising oil prices and stronger-than-expected PMI data, which could keep inflation pressures elevated. The analysts note that the ECB's next move will depend heavily on incoming data, particularly on services inflation and wage growth. Markets are now pricing in a higher probability of a hike at the September meeting.