Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, told CNBC on Friday, September 11, that the Federal Reserve should raise its policy rate by 50 basis points at its meeting next week, while conceding that even a 25 basis point move may not happen. The Federal Funds target range upper bound stands at 3.75%, unchanged for months, and the ten-year Treasury yield closed at 4.95% on September 10, 2026, its highest level in the trailing year and up from a trailing-year low of 3.97% on February 27, 2026. Sri-Kumar argued that rising oil prices and expanding global tariffs matter more than any monthly CPI print, noting that core PCE has run above 3% and inflation has missed the Fed's 2% target for five and a half years. He said his trigger for meaningful headwinds would be a 30-year Treasury at 5.75% alongside a 75-basis-point spread between the 10- and 30-year; the 30-year already sits at 5.37% and the 20-year at 5.39%. Sri-Kumar warned that a 25-basis-point move, or a hold, would let the long end keep drifting higher on its own as inflation pressure persists.
Sri-Kumar urges a 50bp Fed hike and warns a smaller move or hold would let the long end drift higher, pushing the 10-year yield up toward 5%.
Article highlights the 30-year at 5.37% and warns persistent inflation pressure will keep long-end yields rising, with 5.75% cited as the trigger level.
