The entry-level job crunch for new graduates is driven more by experienced workers sliding into junior roles than by artificial intelligence replacing those positions. Job postings for junior roles declined 7% between August 2024 and August 2025, matching the overall market contraction, while the share of workers in AI-exposed occupations has held flat at about 18% of the workforce. A Stanford Digital Economy Lab working paper found a 16% relative employment decline for workers ages 22 to 25 in AI-exposed jobs, even as older workers gained ground in those same roles. The share of U.S. tech postings requiring at least five years of experience rose from 37% to 42% between the second quarters of 2022 and 2025, while mid-level postings fell from 46% to 40%, and entry-level postings held steady at about 18%. The pay premium for job switchers fell to 3.7% in May from 4.3% in December, according to the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker, indicating more workers are making lateral moves or accepting lesser roles. Data from the Burning Glass Institute and Strada Institute shows 52% of graduates are underemployed within a year of finishing college, and a graduate who starts underemployed has a 73% chance of remaining so a decade later.