New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who took office on May 22, has launched five policy task forces and shortened post-meeting statements, but inflation remains stubbornly high, with the PCE price index up 3.7% year-over-year in July 2026, well above the 2% target. Core PCE is at 3.3%, and 30-year mortgage rates have risen to 6.66% from 6.51% in his first week, while the 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high in mid-August. Gold and Bitcoin have rallied, up 7.4% and 24.8% respectively in the 30 days ended Sept. 1, suggesting investors still see inflation risk. At Jackson Hole on Aug. 28, Warsh admitted underlying inflation has not meaningfully improved and warned the Fed would "have work to do." Markets now price a 66% chance of a rate hike on Sept. 16, up from 36% before his speech, and if the Fed holds again with PCE above 3.5%, his "regime change" promise will be hard to believe.
NVIDIA CorporationMarkets price 66% chance of rate hike, implying higher policy rate
30-year Treasury yield hit 19-year high, indicating rising yields
