Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is leading his second FOMC meeting amid deep market uncertainty over whether the central bank will hold rates steady or deliver a surprise hike. The two-day meeting began Tuesday and concludes Wednesday with a rate decision and press conference. Traders currently price a 70.6% probability of a hold in the 350 to 375 basis point range and a 29.4% chance of a 25 basis point hike, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Cooling June inflation to 3.5% supports a pause, but renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and rising oil prices are fueling fears that energy costs could push the Fed toward tightening. Warsh has already reshaped Fed operations by signaling less forward guidance and launching new task forces, a shift that has unsettled markets accustomed to clearer signals. Crypto markets are flashing caution ahead of the decision, with Bitcoin falling to about $63,763, the total crypto market cap dropping roughly 3% to $2.18 trillion, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index slipping to 34.