New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh gave his first Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium speech, but notably provided no forward guidance or hint about a potential September rate hike. With inflation running above the Fed's 2% target and several FOMC members leaning toward a hike before end of 2026, investors were watching for signals. Warsh's silence was deliberate, as he has long criticized forward guidance for locking the committee into positions. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now price a 57% chance of a quarter-point rate hike at the September 16 meeting, with a 43% chance of holding rates unchanged. The upcoming August CPI data could shift expectations, but Warsh's lack of reassurance leaves the outcome uncertain.
NVIDIA CorporationWarsh's silence leaves rate hike odds at 57%, implying higher policy rate
Rate hike expectations push yields up, lowering bond prices
