Automatic Data Processing IncADP
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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, speaking from Sintra, Portugal, emphasized his commitment to price stability, reinforcing that the central bank remains focused on inflation. Markets are pricing in about a one-in-three chance of a rate hike at the next meeting in four weeks, though some strategists view that as unlikely. The US economy is experiencing a fiscal sugar rush from nearly a trillion dollars in stimulus, including incentives from the one big beautiful bill, higher defense spending, and tariff refunds, which is complicating the Fed's job. While oil prices are declining, the temporary boost may keep the Fed on hold for the rest of the year after the stimulus fades.
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