The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its July 29 meeting despite the probability of a hike tripling over the past week to 37.9%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The FOMC remains a reactive body that relies on backward-looking economic data, and key inflation figures such as June Core PCE will not be released until July 30, one day after the meeting concludes. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has eliminated forward-looking guidance from policy statements, arguing it can constrain decision-making, which adds to market uncertainty. While a rate hike is unlikely today, there is a high probability of an increase at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting as inflationary pressures from rising energy costs and Trump-era policies persist.
CME Group IncArticle mentions CME Group's FedWatch Tool showing rate hike probability, but the tool is a data product, not directly impacted by the rate decision itself.