The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting on Wednesday, marking Kevin Warsh's debut as Chair. Markets will focus on the revised Summary of Economic Projections and Warsh's press conference for clues on the policy outlook, with investors pricing a 58% probability of at least one 25-basis-point rate hike by end-2026. The decision comes as oil prices retreat below $80 per barrel following a US-Iran framework deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though analysts at TD Securities anticipate hawkish adjustments to the SEP and dot plot. The US Dollar's reaction will hinge on whether policymakers signal that rate hikes remain a real possibility or push back against tightening expectations.