The Federal Reserve now expects no reduction in its policy rate in 2026, according to the June Summary of Economic Projections. The Federal Open Market Committee kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, and the median dot-plot projection for the end of 2026 rose to 3.8% from the March estimate of 3.4%. The June dot plot showed only 18 dots, implying that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who has expressed disdain for forward guidance, did not submit his own rate forecast. The policy rate is now expected to retreat to 3.6% in 2027 and 3.4% in 2028, up from the earlier projection of 3.1% for both years, while the longer-run rate remains at 3.1%. The median 2026 GDP growth projection was revised down to 2.2% from 2.4%, the unemployment rate estimate edged lower to 4.3% from 4.4%, and core PCE inflation is now seen finishing 2026 at 3.3%, up from the prior 2.7% estimate.