CME Group IncRate hike probability surge increases demand for CME's interest rate derivatives, boosting trading volumes and revenue.
The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike has surged, with the CME Group's FedWatch Tool showing a 70% chance of an increase by mid-September and a 90% chance by March 2027. This shift follows the first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who took office on May 22 and has pledged a reform-oriented central bank. Warsh abstained from the latest dot plot, but nine of the other 18 FOMC members forecast one or more rate hikes by the end of 2026. Higher borrowing costs could slow the artificial intelligence data center build-out and pressure stock valuations in what is already the second-priciest market in history, behind only the dot-com bubble.
CME Group IncRate hike probability surge increases demand for CME's interest rate derivatives, boosting trading volumes and revenue.
NVIDIA CorporationHigher borrowing costs could slow AI data center build-out, reducing demand for NVIDIA's chips.