Focus on the US June FOMC minutes, searching for clues on the timing of rate cuts

Macro
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Summary · why it matters

In the economic indicators released from July 6 to 10, the US June FOMC minutes will be the biggest focus. At the June 16-17 meeting, the policy rate was held steady at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, but the minutes are expected to reveal internal discussions on the conditions for starting rate cuts and the assessment of the balance between inflation and employment. Depending on whether the language is hawkish or dovish, the dollar could swing sharply. Meanwhile, the US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, released on the 6th, is expected to edge down to 53.0, but the baseline scenario is that it remains above 50, indicating expansion. On the 8th, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy rate announcement is scheduled. A hold from the previous 2.25 percent is widely expected, but if the statement mentions room for additional rate cuts, selling of the New Zealand dollar is likely to ensue. Canada's June employment report, due on the 10th, is expected to show a gain of 45,000 jobs from the previous month and an unemployment rate of 6.7 percent, cooling from the previous large increase. Together with building permits data on the same day, it could influence the direction of the Canadian dollar against the yen.

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