Fortinet Raises 2026 Guidance on Firewall and SASE Demand

The fair value estimate for Palo Alto Networks has been raised from US$336.70 to US$395.38, a roughly 17% increase in the underlying model, after a wave of analyst price target hikes. RBC Capital, Wells Fargo, BofA, Morgan Stanley and Truist lifted their targets into the low to mid US$400s, citing stronger cybersecurity demand as AI usage expands and customers consolidate spending with larger platforms. Goldman Sachs, Oppenheimer, BTIG and Susquehanna pointed to solid Q4 results and guidance, with broad based strength across firewalls, SASE, observability, identity and AI security modules. On the bearish side, Bernstein and Phillip Securities moved to more neutral stances while still raising targets, and Stephens and UBS described the risk or reward as more balanced with shares near peak valuation levels. The updated model trims the revenue growth assumption to about 17.31% from about 19.09% and the net profit margin outlook to about 13.84% from about 14.51%, while the future P/E rises to about 197.87x from about 164.67x and the discount rate adjusts to about 8.60% from 8.40%.

Palo Alto Networks said its SASE bookings grew 40% in fiscal 2026, with the company displacing legacy vendors in nearly 100 customer accounts representing more than $400 million in total contract value, roughly double the prior year's displacement volume. Management said PANW is currently the No. 2 player in SASE and aims to become the market leader over the next five to seven years, helped by integrating SASE with its firewall and SD-WAN products so existing customers can standardize on one vendor. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, a global telecom leader signed a $126 million agreement to expand its next-generation firewall footprint while replacing legacy proxy providers with Prisma Access for SASE, and agentic traffic on the company's SASE platform has increased 9x over the past nine months. Rival Fortinet said its SASE Firewall business grew 34% in the second quarter of 2026 to more than $2 billion, while Unified SASE billings rose 35%, and Zscaler reported ARR up 25% year over year in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. Palo Alto Networks shares have jumped 104.1% year to date versus a 92.6% gain for the Zacks Security industry, and the stock trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 21.31X against an industry average of 19.13X.

Fastly reported quarterly revenue of $183 million, up 23% year over year, with security revenue climbing 43% and delivery services revenue rising 17%, CFO Rich Wong said at a Piper Sandler conference. Remaining performance obligations increased 38% year over year, and the current portion of RPO rose 44%, which Wong attributed to stronger customer commitments amid component shortages. Wong credited the security growth to an expanded portfolio that now spans five security products, up from a single web application firewall, and to improved sales execution under Scott Lovett, who joined as head of sales in mid-2024. Bot management and DDoS protection each posted triple-digit year-over-year growth, and net retention reached a four-year high of 117%. Fastly also said it will hold an investor day at Nasdaq MarketSite in New York to discuss a longer-term operating model and its outlook over the next three years, though it does not plan to provide fiscal 2027 guidance at the event.