Tesla IncInvestor Gary Black warns Tesla's ~200x forward P/E needs 35-40% EPS growth and the stock will keep underperforming without it.

Tesla Inc. investor Gary Black warned that the company risks squandering its first-mover advantage in unsupervised autonomy and Cybercab the same way it squandered its EV lead from 2020 to 2023, and he called for roughly $100 million in advertising for Cybercab and unsupervised autonomy. Writing Sunday on X, the Future Fund managing partner said Tesla has "no one but itself to blame" for losing its EV edge and could repeat the mistake in 2026-2027 if it lets the product speak for itself. He said the campaign should reach consumers who do not already follow the brand and highlight time saved, driving while tired, safety versus human driving, and aesthetics, arguing that a limited campaign could cement Tesla's autonomous lead before rivals copy the technology. Black tied the marketing problem to valuation, saying Tesla's roughly 200-times forward P/E requires better than 35%-40% long-term EPS growth to justify the multiple, and warning that absent that growth the stock is likely to continue to underperform. Tesla said in July that Cybercab production had started and unsupervised rides had expanded in Austin, Miami, Orlando and Tampa, and Reuters reported this month that Tesla had 420 autonomous vehicles registered in Texas, including 45 Cybercabs, while Alphabet Inc.'s Waymo and Amazon.com's Zoox continue expanding robotaxi operations across more U.S. cities.
Tesla IncInvestor Gary Black warns Tesla's ~200x forward P/E needs 35-40% EPS growth and the stock will keep underperforming without it.
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