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GCAP Gold warns of volatility due to US-Iran talks and labor data, affecting gold prices.
GCAP GOLD Warns of Gold Volatility, Eyes on US-Iran Talks and Labor Data
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GCAP GOLD warns that gold prices are likely to experience high volatility in the near term. Head analyst Ms. Areerat Murachai says two key factors must be watched: progress in political negotiations between the United States and Iran, which directly affect oil prices and safe-haven asset holdings, and the upcoming US labor market report, which serves as an indicator for the dollar's direction, bond yields, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Tensions in the Middle East have temporarily eased after President Trump suspended plans to strike Iran to allow negotiations to continue. The US recently disclosed that an agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within this week, easing energy supply concerns and inflationary pressures, which may support gold prices in the short term. Meanwhile, global investors are eyeing the US nonfarm payrolls report this Friday. The market expects July to add around 85,000 jobs, up from 57,000 in June 2026, while the unemployment rate is likely to hold steady at 4.2 percent. If the data meets or beats expectations, the Fed may proceed with tight monetary policy, strengthening the dollar and pressuring gold prices to pull back, which would present a buying opportunity. However, if the data disappoints, it would reduce pressure for rate hikes and support a continued recovery in gold prices. The analyst team recommends a strategy of waiting to buy on dips near support levels, while avoiding chasing prices during sharp rallies. Key support is seen at 4,160 to 4,120 US dollars, or approximately 64,800 to 64,500 baht for Thai gold, a zone where prices could pull back to retest after breaking out to the upside. Key resistance is at 4,330 to 4,365 US dollars, or around 67,300 to 67,800 baht. If prices pull back but hold above support, there is a chance for another rebound. However, if prices break below 4,120 US dollars, buying should be delayed and the next support level assessed to reduce risk from potentially increased selling pressure.
GCAP Gold warns of volatility due to US-Iran talks and labor data, affecting gold prices.