Global Rate Hikes Threaten Bonds Beyond Fed

MacroDigital Finance Impact 4

โดย Bloomberg·

Summary · why it matters

Bond markets face a bigger threat from global rate hikes than from the Federal Reserve as traders price in faster tightening in Japan, Canada, the UK and the euro zone. Two-thirds of 32 swap markets tracked by Bloomberg are priced for rate increases, with South Korea leading at more than 100 basis points. Central banks are grappling with higher oil prices from the Iran war, heavy government spending and an AI investment boom that has pushed OECD inflation to a two-year high. Investors warn that bonds may no longer cushion portfolios, with South Korean government debt losing over 9% this year and Japanese bonds down about 4%. Some fund managers still prefer European debt, citing the ECB's aggressive stance and predictable fiscal outlook, while US 10-year Treasury yields are up about 50 basis points this year.