Gold Jumps 1.43% on Falling Bond Yields, Fed Decision in Focus Tonight

CommodityMacroDigital Finance
โดย InfoQuest·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Gold prices rebounded today, buoyed by falling oil prices and lower U.S. Treasury yields, while investors await the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting tonight. As of 8:27 p.m. Thailand time, spot gold was up 61.47 dollars, or 1.43%, at 4,354.38 dollars per ounce, while COMEX December gold futures rose 62.80 dollars, or 1.45%, to 4,396.30 dollars per ounce. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell below 5% today, while West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude prices dropped more than 1% after the American Petroleum Institute reported that crude inventories rose by 7.1 million barrels last week, contrary to analysts' expectations of a 1.6 million-barrel decline. The market is watching the Fed's meeting outcome tonight, along with remarks by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the latest Dot Plot projections of the policy interest rate. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that investors assign a 92.7% probability to the Fed raising rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.75-4% at today's meeting, and a 7.3% probability to the Fed holding rates steady. If the Fed raises rates as expected today, it would be the first hike since July 2023, and since then the Fed has cut rates six times by a total of 1.75%. Meanwhile, economists at Morgan Stanley said in a report that the firm has changed its forecast from expecting no rate hikes this year to expecting two increases, one on September 16 and another in December.

Impact on stocks 3

Financials▲ · 1 stocks
Morgan Stanley
MS
± MixedMonetaryrelevance

Morgan Stanley changed its forecast to expect two Fed rate hikes this year (Sept 16 and December), a rate-path view mentioned as context.

Others± Mixed · 2 stocks
％Effective Federal Funds Rate
EFFR
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

Article says the Fed is expected to raise rates 0.25% to 3.75-4% tonight, pushing the effective federal funds rate yield up.

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