Gold Rally Led by Investment Demand, Not Treasury Move, Says Analyst

Commodity
โดย Investing.com·GLOBAL·Read original
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Gold's August surge was driven primarily by investment flows rather than any single catalyst, according to Krishan Gopaul, senior analyst for EMEA at the World Gold Council, who cautioned against attributing the move to the U.S. Treasury's bond buyback expansion. Spot gold rallied close to $4,700 an ounce in August, its highest since mid-May, but Gopaul said the buyback announcement likely accelerated an existing trend rather than creating a new one, amid debt concerns in the U.S. and elsewhere. Investment demand has strengthened since July, with global physically backed gold ETFs recording $3 billion of net inflows that month, reversing two consecutive months of outflows, followed by a further $17 billion in August. Gopaul noted that the latest leg of the rally was led primarily by investment demand, particularly futures positioning and gold-backed ETF inflows, rather than a sudden acceleration in retail physical demand. He characterized central bank buying as an important underlying pillar of the market rather than the principal catalyst, expecting official sector purchases to stay strong this year but below 2025's level. On the outlook, Gopaul said conditions remain supportive, but a renewed rise in long-dated real yields, a stronger dollar, or a more hawkish-than-expected Federal Reserve would present near-term headwinds, while further dollar weakness, downward pressure on real yields, continued ETF inflows, or escalating fiscal and geopolitical risks would be supportive.

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