Goldman Sachs lowered its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 15% from 25%, citing easing geopolitical risks and lower energy prices. Chief economist Jan Hatzius said the U.S.-Iran peace agreement reduced the risk of another oil price spike, with Brent crude now expected near $80 a barrel by end-2026. The bank also nudged its second-half 2026 GDP growth forecast up to 2%, though it flagged soft consumer spending and a slowing labor market. Goldman now sees a 15% recession chance, its long-term norm, down from 30% at the height of the Iran conflict in March, when some other forecasters had put odds as high as 48.6%.
Goldman Sachs Group IncGoldman Sachs's own economist lowered recession probability, which may boost investor sentiment toward the bank's stock.