Goldman Sachs cut its year-end gold forecast by $500 an ounce to $4,900, citing expectations that the Federal Reserve will not reduce rates in 2026. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said the revision was driven by a lower forecast for inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds after the bank's economists pushed back expectations for US rate cuts to June and December of next year. They noted that gold remains structurally constructive but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risk and medium-term upside risk. If the Fed were to hike, demand for gold as a macro policy hedge could unwind more persistently, with prices at $4,400 by year-end. Central-bank purchases were seen at 50 tons a month this year and 40 tons a month next year, providing some support.
Goldman Sachs Group IncGoldman Sachs cut its own gold price forecast, reflecting a bearish view on gold due to no Fed rate cuts, which may affect its commodities research credibility and trading revenues.