Goldman Sachs warned that markets are still too hawkish on Federal Reserve policy, pushing down odds of a rate hike this year. The bank said a September hike is very unlikely due to softer retail sales, a slowing labor market, and cooling inflation. Goldman expects the Fed to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75% through 2026, with cuts postponed to 2027. CME FedWatch shows a 30% chance of a September hike, while Polymarket gives 53% odds the Fed will not hike in 2026. Bitcoin rose over 1% to $63,503 as Treasury yields and the dollar slipped.
Goldman Sachs Group IncGoldman's view that Fed will hold rates and not hike is positive for its outlook, though it's the bank's own forecast.
