Goldman Sachs Says Sterling Is Now the Most Overvalued G10 Currency

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โดย Bloomberg·Read original
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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says the British pound has become the most overvalued currency among G10 peers after its post-Brexit recovery overshot fundamentals. Strategist Stuart Jenkins wrote in a note that Brexit likely weighed on the currency's fair value by about 6%, and that sterling's strong real-term recovery has left it as the most overvalued G10 currency. The pound has risen roughly 1.5% against the dollar since Britain formally left the EU in 2020 but remains about 10% below its pre-Brexit referendum level, and with much of that discount now erased, some analysts see less room for further gains. Goldman's valuation metrics point to some degree of overvaluation, which Jenkins said constitutes a meaningful medium-term headwind for the currency, though he acknowledged that sterling's valuation looks less demanding on a 30-year real trade-weighted basis that reduces the impact of Brexit. A relatively dovish Bank of England compared with the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve could also weigh on the currency, while political uncertainty adds to volatility ahead of the Makerfield by-election results.

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