Goldman Sachs Warns of Lower Stock Returns Amid Bond Market Stress

MacroDigital Finance Impact 4
โดย TheStreet·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Goldman Sachs Chief Global Equity Strategist Peter Oppenheimer is warning investors to temper expectations for the next 12 months, forecasting mid- to high-single-digit percentage returns for major equity markets, lower than the gains seen over the past year. The caution comes as the S&P 500 has already risen roughly 12% so far in 2026, and as government bond yields surge globally, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touching 4.814%, its highest since November 2023, and the 30-year yield topping 5.33%, a 19-year high. Oppenheimer's track record, including a cautious call in early March before stocks hit their lows, lends weight to his outlook, which contrasts with more bullish targets from other Wall Street firms, such as John Stoltzfus's 8,100 year-end S&P 500 target at Oppenheimer Investment Firm, while Bank of America holds the most cautious at 7,100. Rising yields, driven by inflation fears and rate-hike expectations—with Fed funds futures showing a 66% chance of a rate hike at the next meeting—are pressuring stock valuations, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has announced plans to double long-term bond buybacks to at least $4 billion to improve liquidity. Oppenheimer's forecast is not a disaster call but a signal that the recent double-digit years are not a baseline, and the coming months will test whether his moderate outlook holds as bond market stress persists.

Impact on stocks 5

Financials▼ · 2 stocks
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
GS
▼ NegativeCapitalrelevance

Goldman's chief equity strategist warns of lower mid- to high-single-digit returns as bond stress pressures valuations.

Others▲ · 3 stocks
％Effective Federal Funds Rate
EFFR
▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

Fed funds futures show a 66% chance of a rate hike at the next meeting, implying a higher effective federal funds rate.

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