Goldman Warns Large US Banks Face Rising G-SIB Buffers

Analyst
โดย Investing.com·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Goldman Sachs warns that the largest U.S. banks are likely to moderate capital deployment as regulatory buffers rise for a third consecutive year and excess capital levels shrink. Analyst Richard Ramsden wrote in a note Wednesday that lenders will pull back given that excess capital has fallen, G-SIB scores have increased year-to-date after rising in both 2024 and 2025, and final details on regulatory capital reform are still pending. Five of the seven global systemically important banks—JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, BNY, and State Street—have moved up one or more G-SIB buckets this year, with none of the top five expected to mitigate scores enough to drop a bucket by year-end. Second-quarter G-SIB scores rose 23 basis points quarter over quarter, with the largest increases at JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo; JPMorgan is up two buckets year to date and now sits in the 7.0% bucket. The top seven banks hold an estimated $78 billion of excess capital, but Goldman says that falls to $55 billion in 2027 and $20 billion in 2028 as prior G-SIB increases take effect with a two-year lag, and could swing to a $21 billion deficit by 2029 when factoring in higher buffers. With bank price-to-tangible-book values at 2.1 times, Goldman sees buybacks as less attractive than balance sheet expansion, assuming a 15% increase in total capital return in 2026.

Impact on stocks 8

Digital Finance & Tokenization▼ · 4 stocks
JPMorgan Chase & Co
JPM
▼ NegativeRegulationrelevance

JPMorgan is up two buckets to the 7.0% G-SIB bucket, the largest increase, forcing it to moderate capital deployment as buffers rise.

Citigroup Inc.
C
▼ NegativeRegulationrelevance

Citigroup saw one of the largest Q2 G-SIB score increases and faces higher regulatory buffers that will limit capital deployment.

State Street Corp
STT
▼ NegativeRegulationrelevance

Named among G-SIB banks facing rising regulatory capital buffers, which Goldman says will moderate capital deployment.

Financials▼ · 4 stocks
Bank of America Corp
BAC
▼ NegativeRegulationrelevance

Bank of America is among the G-SIBs that moved up a bucket, and rising regulatory capital buffers will force it to moderate capital deployment.

Morgan Stanley
MS
▼ NegativeRegulationrelevance

Morgan Stanley is among the G-SIBs named, and rising regulatory capital buffers will reduce its excess capital and capital deployment.

Wells Fargo & Company
WFC
▼ NegativeRegulationrelevance

Moved up a G-SIB bucket with one of the largest Q2 score increases, raising its regulatory capital buffer and curbing capital deployment.

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