Government Scraps 400-Billion-Baht Rail Buyback Plan, Turns to 17–45 Baht Common Ticket Fund

Corporate ActionAnalyst
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Summary · why it matters

The government has scrapped a plan to buy back electric rail concessions worth 400 billion baht and instead adopted a model where the Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand will manage the system holistically, along with setting up a common ticket fund to compensate private operators for revenue shortfalls. The goal is for the public to use all rail lines at fares of 17 to 45 baht, starting 1 January 2027. The state will compensate for the revenue gap only based on passenger growth in line with normal statistics, with the compensation budget estimated at around 4.6 billion baht per year. If passenger numbers exceed historical records, private operators will receive actual revenue without additional state compensation. Analysts at InnovestX Securities view this measure as positive for land transport stocks, with BEM benefiting the most. They maintain an OUTPERFORM rating on BEM with a target price of 7.3 baht per share, and a NEUTRAL rating on BTS with a target price of 2.3 baht per share and on BTSGIF with a target price of 2.1 baht per share.

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