Growing View That Global Crude Oil Will Shift to Oversupply as Hormuz Transit Resumes

CommodityGeopolitics Impact 4
โดย Jiji Press·Read original
Summary · why it matters

With the resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz following a memorandum of understanding to end the US-Iran conflict, the view is strengthening that global crude oil supply will shift from deficit to surplus. Analysts at Goldman Sachs forecast that crude oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz will normalize by the end of July, leading to a global oversupply of nearly 2 million barrels per day next year. This is equivalent to about 60 percent of Japan's daily consumption. After briefly surging to nearly 120 dollars per barrel in March, WTI futures have fallen sharply since mid-June on expectations of recovering supply, and are currently trading below 70 dollars. However, this forecast assumes a complete end to the conflict, and the possibility of renewed tensions or a recovery in Chinese demand has also been noted.

Impact on stocks 1

Financials▲ · 1 stocks
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
GS
± MixedCapitalrelevance

Goldman Sachs analysts are cited for the oversupply forecast, but the article does not discuss the bank's own financials or stock.

Theme Impact 1

Related news

▼

Tata Steel Seeks Fresh Government Funding as Port Talbot EAF Delayed

Tata Steel has approached the Department for Business, Innovation, Science and Technology in recent weeks to discuss a new multimillion-pound support package, according to Sky News. The request is in addition to the £500m grant awarded to Tata Steel in 2023 to build an electric arc furnace at Port Talbot, part of a £1.25bn investment in the site that was supposed to have the new EAF operational by early 2028. Delays to the grid connection timetable mean the EAF will now not be up and running until late 2028 or early 2029, and the company has calculated that rising project costs and foregone sales from the delay would significantly escalate its overall cost. The precise sum sought was unclear, though industry sources said it was likely to run to hundreds of millions of pounds, and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has been briefed on the approach. The plan was aimed at preserving 5,000 steelmaking jobs across the UK, although 2,500 roles have already been lost as part of the transition, and the last of Port Talbot's blast furnaces closed in 2024. Tata Steel and the Department for Business both declined to comment.
TTST.LSE ▼
Critical Materials & Supply Chain ▼Energy Transition & Power Demand ▼
Sky News·6hRead more →
▲

Commercial Metals Targets Over $350 Million in TAG Program EBITDA Benefits by Fiscal 2027

Commercial Metals Company expects its TAG Transform, Advance, Grow program to deliver run-rate gross EBITDA benefits exceeding $250 million by the end of fiscal 2026, rising to more than $350 million by the end of fiscal 2027. Launched in 2024, the program spans more than 150 individual projects across the company's business segments and support functions, aimed at optimizing logistics, reducing input consumption, lowering costs and boosting energy efficiency. Backed by the program, CMC expects fiscal 2029 core EBITDA of $1.65 billion to $1.80 billion, a 106% surge at the midpoint from the $837 million delivered in fiscal 2025, with a core EBITDA margin of 15-16%. Separately, Cleveland-Cliffs is investing $1 billion to modernize its Middletown Works facility in Ohio, half of it funded by a $500 million U.S. Department of Energy award, while Carpenter Technology set a fiscal 2029 operating income target of $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion, up from $702 million reported in fiscal 2026. The Zacks Consensus Estimate puts CMC's fiscal 2026 sales at $9.18 billion, up 13.9% year over year, and earnings at $6.62 per share, up 111.5%.
CMC ▲CLF CRS
Critical Materials & Supply Chain ▲
Zacks Investment Research·22hRead more →
▲2impact 4

Steel Dynamics Guides Q3 Earnings to $5.34-$5.38 Per Share

Steel Dynamics expects third-quarter 2026 earnings of $5.34-$5.38 per share, well above the $3.69 it reported in the second quarter and the $2.74 it posted in the year-ago quarter. The company said stronger steel metal margins, record shipments, higher realized selling prices and lower scrap costs are projected to drive the significant sequential improvement in steel operations profitability, with healthy order activity, solid end-market demand and low customer inventories also supporting pricing conditions. Steel fabrication earnings are expected to improve modestly on higher shipments despite narrower metal spreads, and the backlog is nearly 50% above prior-year levels and extends through the first quarter of 2027, supported by demand from commercial construction, data centers, manufacturing and healthcare. Metals recycling earnings are expected to decline sequentially on lower metal spreads and slightly weaker shipments, while aluminum earnings are expected to improve meaningfully on higher shipments as the company advances its Columbus, MS aluminum flat rolled mill, where all three cold mills are operational and the first Continuous Annealing and Solution Heat line is expected to ship commercial material in the fourth quarter. Steel Dynamics has repurchased $261 million, or just under 1% of its common stock, so far in the third quarter, and is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results after market close on Oct. 19, 2026.
STLD ▲
Critical Materials & Supply Chain ▲
Zacks Investment Research·1dRead more →
© 2026 MarketDXNews