Guotai Junan Securities Co LtdGuotai Haitong's interim earnings preview far exceeds expectations, with core net profit up ~1.7x YoY and ROE at ten-year high.

Guotai Haitong released its semi-annual earnings preview, expecting first-half core net profit attributable to the parent of nearly 20 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 1.7 times. Second-quarter core net profit alone is about 14 billion yuan, up roughly 2.5 times year-on-year, with quarterly ROE hitting a ten-year high. At the industry level, the non-bank sector's second-quarter earnings growth is highly certain, with brokerages and insurers expected to continue strong profit gains. As of July 3, the Securities Companies Index traded at about 1.4 times book, near the 31st percentile of the past decade, while the CSI 300 Non-Bank Index traded at about 1.2 times book, near the 11th percentile, diverging from actual fundamentals and presenting a valuation repair opportunity during the interim reporting season. In the second half, high-profile hard-tech IPOs will list in clusters, benefiting brokerages across the entire chain of sponsorship, co-investment, and direct investment. Top brokerages' ROE could trend toward 15 percent, opening up medium- to long-term valuation re-rating potential. Among related products, the E Fund Securities ETF has a latest size of about 4.4 billion yuan, the E Fund Hong Kong Securities ETF is the only ETF in the market tracking the Hong Kong Securities Index with a latest size of about 19.7 billion yuan, and the E Fund Securities and Insurance ETF has a latest size of about 14.5 billion yuan.
Guotai Junan Securities Co LtdGuotai Haitong's interim earnings preview far exceeds expectations, with core net profit up ~1.7x YoY and ROE at ten-year high.
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