Odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike surged after new Chair Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting, with hawkish talk and forecasts driving the shift. According to options trading data compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the probability of a 25 basis point hike at the September meeting jumped to 65%, while cut odds sank to just 2%. The move came despite easing Middle East tensions and a US-Iran deal that lowered oil prices, which would normally reduce inflation pressures. Stocks tanked on the news, gold plunged from around $4,400 an ounce to $4,240, and Bitcoin lost about 5% through late Thursday. If rate futures and options markets continue to price in a greater chance of one or more hikes in 2026 and 2027, stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies could face more selling pressure.