Hong Kong to raise 2026 GDP growth forecast to near 4% after first-half expansion of 5.1%
Macro
Hong Kong is set to raise its 2026 gross domestic product growth forecast to near 4%, up from the previous range of 2.5 to 3.5%, after the economy expanded 5.1% in the first half compared with the same period a year earlier. The upgrade is supported by strong exports of artificial intelligence-related goods and capital inflows from the United States into the stock market. Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po said the Census and Statistics Department will revise the forecast this month. Analysts at Shanghai Commercial Bank and Baptist University estimate full-year GDP growth of between 3.5% and 4%, with additional momentum from the partial lifting of US sanctions, which has helped restore confidence among European and US investors. The Hang Seng Index rose about 3,000 points in July, and average daily turnover has stayed above 300 billion Hong Kong dollars for two consecutive months. Meanwhile, IPO fundraising in the first seven months of 2026 exceeded the full-year total for 2025 by 13%. Hong Kong also launched five-year China government bond futures on the Hong Kong stock exchange on 3 August 2026 to strengthen its role as a global renminbi hub. Outstanding Dim Sum bonds total more than 1.6 trillion renminbi. However, risks from geopolitics, US interest rates, and global economic volatility still warrant caution.
