HSBC downgrades AstraZeneca to hold after key trial failure

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HSBC has downgraded AstraZeneca to 'hold' from 'buy' and cut its target price to 13,750 pence from 16,500 pence, arguing that the failure of the Wainua phase III trial in a form of heart disease has removed the central pillar of its bull case. The bank said the path to more than $80 billion in peak revenues by 2030 still exists but now relies on more volatile catalysts, most of which read out in 2027. HSBC also flagged discomfort with two oncology readouts due in the second half of 2026, the SERENA-4 breast cancer trial and the AVANZAR lung cancer study, both of which it views as high risk. The bank removed Wainua from its forecasts, trimming its estimate for revenue growth between 2025 and 2030 to 6.4% from 6.7%, and now expects earnings of $10.01 a share this year, slightly below consensus. In afternoon trading, the stock was down 1.5% at 12,648 pence, and it has fallen 11% since the phase III failure.

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