HSBC Warns Explosive Dollar Rally Could Be Major Pain Trade

MacroDigital Finance
โดย Bloomberg·Read original
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HSBC Holdings says a sharp rise in the dollar may emerge as one of the biggest pain trades in the second half of the year. The bank expects the dollar to strengthen gradually through the first half of 2027 and warns the rally could become explosive if the Federal Reserve signals tighter policy than markets expect or if geopolitical tensions flare. The risk has grown since the Fed's June meeting kept focus on inflation, pushing the dollar to a seven-month high earlier in June. Hedge funds have boosted bullish dollar bets to a 16-month high. HSBC also flagged a reversal in the US Treasury market as another pain trade, noting that bets on further yield curve flattening could unravel if the economy weakens enough to push the Fed toward easing.

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