Hua Seng Heng: Middle East and US Labor Are Key Drivers for Gold This Week

CommodityGeopoliticsMacro
โดย thunhoon.com·US·Read original
Summary · why it matters

Hua Seng Heng noted that gold prices declined last week after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a major speech at Jackson Hole, signaling that the Fed still prioritizes controlling inflation and that current financial conditions may not be tight enough to restrain economic activity. This led the CME Group's FedWatch Tool to quickly shift expectations from December to September, suggesting the Fed might raise interest rates by 0.25% at the September FOMC meeting. Key factors this week include tensions in the Middle East, as Pakistan's Army Chief General Asim Munir visited Iran's president to mediate the transmission of a US proposal, and Oman's Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi held talks to define a framework for a joint maritime corridor agreement. However, the IRGC launched an attack on a US air base in Jordan and prepared to fire mine-laden rockets into the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the US labor market remains stable with no signs of weakness, which could be negative for gold as the Fed may not need to rush rate cuts. Gold has support at $4,370 and $4,300, with resistance at $4,600 and $4,700. For domestic gold bars, it is recommended to accumulate gradually near 68,700 baht, with a stop-loss at 68,000 baht, and resistance at 71,500 and 72,200 baht.

Impact on stocks 3

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▲ PositiveMonetaryrelevance

CME's FedWatch Tool is cited as shifting rate-hike expectations to September, highlighting its role in pricing Fed policy.

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