IMF warns dollar stablecoins amplify run risk in fixed exchange rate countries

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The International Monetary Fund published a working paper on July 10 warning that dollar-denominated stablecoins could amplify runs during currency crises in countries with fixed or managed exchange rate regimes. The paper's author, economist Brandon Joel Tan, notes that while stablecoins help access dollars when banks and official exchange channels cannot meet demand, they may trigger selling of the domestic currency when the gap between the official rate and the market rate widens significantly. Model estimates show that the probability of a crisis rises from an average of 3.9 percent in a cash-only economy to 7.4 percent in an economy where stablecoins are widely adopted, and the impact on people's welfare turns negative once the gap exceeds a certain threshold, falling as much as minus 6.3 percent. As a real-world example, in Bolivia, which lifted its ban on crypto asset trading in 2024, Tether-denominated prices have become entrenched as a reference rate in the parallel market.

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