IMF warns oil markets have exhausted all three shock absorbers as US-Iran conflict threatens to restart

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The International Monetary Fund warns that oil markets have depleted all three shock absorbers that previously kept crude prices from skyrocketing, leaving the world exposed to future supply shocks as the US-Iran conflict threatens to restart. In a recent blog post, the IMF said spare capacity has been deployed, demand has compressed, and inventories have been drawn down, with an average deficit of 4 million barrels per day from March through May. Brent crude topped $100 per barrel in mid-July before stabilizing after a pause in hostilities, but the three-month ceasefire has virtually collapsed, and President Trump has reimposed a blockade on Iran while threatening to destroy infrastructure for every ship targeted in the Strait of Hormuz. US strategic oil reserves have fallen to 311 million barrels as of July 17, the lowest since 1983, and the national average gas price reached $4.11 per gallon on July 25. The IMF stressed that unless inventories are replenished, the world will start from a weaker position when the next shock comes.

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