India’s current account swung from a $70 billion deficit to a $45 billion surplus as oil prices retreated sharply from their April peak, Nomura Chief Economist Sonal Varma said in a Bloomberg segment. She warned that June rains ran 40% below normal with El Niño strengthening, risking a monsoon shortfall worse than the 10% deficit forecasters currently project. India’s core inflation runs at roughly 2%, with muted rural wages limiting the risk that any food-price spike spreads economy-wide. Varma expects the rupee to be supported in the near term as reserves build, giving the Reserve Bank of India room to hold rates steady.