Intel CorporationIntel's foundry revenue from external customers is minimal, losses are large, and capital spending is rising, creating a gap that is the main risk.
Intel's capital spending keeps climbing while outside customers still contribute almost none of the foundry's revenue, and that gap is the main risk in the stock. Intel stock is up about 260% over the past year and down roughly 22% over the past three months, leaving it near $89, about 63% of its 52-week high. Of the $5.8 billion Intel Foundry brought in during Q2 2026, only $293 million came from customers other than Intel, and the segment lost $2.1 billion in the quarter. Management has raised 2026 capital spending to more than $20 billion and says 2027 will run significantly above it, while the node positioned for broad outside adoption, 14A, is committed to high-volume production in 2028. Non-GAAP gross margin was 41.8% in Q2 2026, with a Q3 2026 guide of 42%, as Panther Lake ramps on 18A and other new products earn margins below the corporate average. The options market is not braced for much, pricing Intel's implied volatility in the 27th percentile of its own past year.
Intel CorporationIntel's foundry revenue from external customers is minimal, losses are large, and capital spending is rising, creating a gap that is the main risk.
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