Investors Snub a 1,400 Basis-Point Outperformance in Small Caps

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โดย Bloomberg·Read original
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The Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500 by almost 1,400 basis points in the first half of 2026, the largest first-half gap in more than three decades, yet investor positioning remains light. The small-cap index has climbed more than 20% this year and is on track for its fifth straight quarterly gain, the longest streak since the Covid-19 recovery. Despite this, both small single stocks and small-cap-focused ETFs have seen nearly $6.8 billion in outflows so far this year, more than reversing the roughly $6.4 billion in net inflows from 2025, according to BofA Securities data. Strategists at BofA and Jefferies expect the outperformance to continue, citing accelerating earnings, with BofA forecasting 25% earnings-per-share growth for small caps in the third quarter and Jefferies raising its Russell 2000 target to 3,190. The outlook is clouded by persistent inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve, but the Russell 2000 has continued to outperform even as rate-hike probabilities have risen.

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