Iran War Inflation Spills Beyond Energy as Core PCE Hits 3.4%

GeopoliticsMacroCommodity Impact 5
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The inflationary effects of President Donald Trump's Iran war are spreading well beyond the energy sector, with Core Personal Consumption Expenditures reaching 3.4% in May, its highest since October 2023. While headline inflation eased to 3.5% in June from a three-year high of 4.2% in May, the Federal Reserve's preferred Core PCE measure remains sticky, with the Cleveland Fed forecasting 3.36% for August. The conflict, which began on February 28, shut down the Strait of Hormuz and removed about 20 million barrels of daily petroleum liquids, but now businesses are altering shipping routes, fertilizer shortages are raising food costs, and petroleum-based products and helium disruptions are adding to price pressures. This broadening inflation could force the Federal Open Market Committee to raise interest rates, potentially ending the historic rallies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite.

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