IREN Trades at $47.23 With $13 Billion in Microsoft and NVIDIA Contracts

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Summary · why it matters

IREN is trading at $47.23, roughly 41% below the mean analyst target of $80.21, as the company works to convert a pre-secured power portfolio into contracted revenue. The company holds more than 5 gigawatts of announced power across Texas, British Columbia, Oklahoma, Spain, and South Australia, anchored by a $9.7 billion AI Cloud contract with Microsoft and a $3.4 billion five-year deal with NVIDIA, yet less than 10% of that 5-gigawatt portfolio is monetized. Management says $4 billion of ARR is contracted for 2026 capacity, with $1 billion already operating, and three-year contract pricing is up about 125% since November, with recent deals above $20 million per megawatt of IT load and active talks near $25 million per megawatt. IREN posted a $684 million net loss on $137.2 million of Q4 revenue that missed estimates and fell 26.75% year over year, while adjusted EBITDA fell from $59.5 million in Q3 to $19.2 million, and FY27 capex is guided at $25 to $30 billion. Consensus FY27 EPS has fallen from negative $0.94 ninety days ago to negative $3.92, and the balance sheet carries $11.60 billion of liabilities against $4.19 billion of equity, making March-quarter revenue the pivotal test of the contracted ARR story.

Impact on assets 4

Artificial Intelligence▲ · 2 stocks
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

Microsoft holds a $9.7 billion AI Cloud contract with IREN, representing real contracted demand for IREN's capacity.

NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA
▲ PositiveDemandrelevance

NVIDIA has a $3.4 billion five-year deal with IREN, representing contracted demand for IREN's AI cloud capacity.

Digital Finance & Tokenization▲ · 1 stocks
IREN Ltd
IREN
± MixedCapitalrelevance

IREN trades 41% below analyst target with $9.7B Microsoft and $3.4B NVIDIA contracts, but posted a $684M net loss on $137.2M Q4 revenue that missed estimates and fell 26.75% YoY.

Energy Transition & Power Demand▲ · 1 stocks

Theme Impact 5

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