KGI Securities Thailand expects IRPC to post a net profit of 2.7 billion baht in the second quarter of 2026, swinging from a net loss of 2.1 billion baht in the second quarter of 2025 and down 66 percent from the previous quarter. The result is supported by a significant increase in market gross refining margin to 13.6 US dollars per barrel, amid Middle East tensions that boosted gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel spreads. The quarter-on-quarter decline is due to an expected net inventory loss of 1.5 billion baht, compared with a large gain of 10.1 billion baht in the first quarter of 2026, after Dubai crude prices fell from 128 US dollars per barrel in March to 79 US dollars per barrel in June. In petrochemicals, profit is expected to rise from the previous quarter, driven by a 53 percent surge in polypropylene spread to 506 US dollars per tonne and a 32 percent increase in ABS spread to 997 US dollars per tonne. However, the recovery is weaker than expected because the company could not fully adjust selling prices due to contracts signed before the Middle East violence erupted on 28 February. KGI raised its 2026 net profit forecast by 66 percent to 12.6 billion baht and its 2027 forecast by 30 percent to 2.0 billion baht. It also lifted its market GRM assumption for this year by 49 percent to 10.5 US dollars per barrel and for next year by 5 percent to 7.0 US dollars per barrel, reflecting stronger-than-expected spreads after Middle East tensions intensified again on 12 July. The new target price is raised to 2.20 baht from 1.80 baht, based on a price-to-book ratio of 0.6 times, but the hold recommendation is maintained because the petrochemical profit recovery is weaker than expected and operating costs remain high at around 10 US dollars per barrel, significantly above other Thai refineries.
IRPC Public Company LimitedSurging refining margins due to Middle East tensions boosting gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel spreads drive expected profit turnaround.