J.P. Morgan cuts second-half 2026 Brent oil price forecast

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โดย Investing.com·Read original
Summary · why it matters

J.P. Morgan has lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast for the second half of 2026. The bank now expects Brent to average $86 per barrel in the third quarter and $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter, reaching $78 by the end of 2026. The revision reflects weaker-than-expected OECD commercial inventory draws and softer oil demand, which have reduced upward pressure on prices. Oil flows are currently running at about 8.6 million barrels per day, with June averaging 6.3 million barrels per day, materially higher than April and May levels. The bank also noted that private operators have largely relied on government Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases rather than drawing down their own stocks, and it expects OECD inventories to draw by an additional 50 million barrels between April and July. Given the projected oversupply in the fourth quarter of 2026 and first half of 2027, production would likely need to be reduced in early 2027 following a period of maximized output in late 2026.

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