J.P. Morgan Upgrades Herc, Downgrades United Rentals on Mixed Outlook

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โดย Seeking Alpha·

Summary · why it matters

J.P. Morgan reshuffled its ratings on major equipment-rental companies on Thursday, upgrading Herc Holdings to Overweight from Neutral with a December 2027 price target of $175 while downgrading United Rentals to Neutral from Overweight with a $1,170 target. Analyst Tami Zakaria also maintained an Underweight rating on Sunbelt Rentals but raised its December 2027 price target to $79 from a previous December 2026 target of $71, as the bank introduced its 2028 earnings forecasts. J.P. Morgan expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates once before the end of 2026, which could further postpone a recovery in smaller, locally driven construction markets, though elevated financing costs above 6% may push contractors to rent rather than buy equipment. The bank sees Herc Holdings as offering the most upside, citing improving fleet utilization after its acquisition of H&E Equipment Services, with projected 2026 adjusted EBITDA still about 10% below the combined companies' pre-transaction earnings, and forecasts Herc revenue rising from $5 billion in 2026 to $5.8 billion in 2028 with adjusted earnings reaching $15.11 a share in 2028. United Rentals remains the industry's best operator, but J.P. Morgan cited valuation and a shrinking acquisition pipeline, forecasting revenue of $17.8 billion in 2026, $19.4 billion in 2027 and $21.1 billion in 2028, with earnings projected at $63.35 a share in 2028. Sunbelt Rentals reported fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.18 a share, beating the consensus estimate of $1.04, on revenue that rose 11% to $3.12 billion, and raised its adjusted EBITDA outlook to between $4.92 billion and $5.12 billion from a previous range of $4.85 billion to $5.05 billion.