Flutter Entertainment is at a potential inflection point as concerns around prediction market competition begin to fade, according to Jefferies analysts. The analysts noted that the market's focus on prediction markets cannibalising online sports betting had driven a 65% decline in Flutter's share price since last summer and contributed to a valuation de-rating from 15 times enterprise value to EBITDA to 8 times. Jefferies argued that the narrative around prediction market disruption is starting to change, with online sports betting handle growth recovering and limited evidence that prediction markets are taking meaningful share in states where online sports betting is legal. The firm identified market-making as the largest potential opportunity, estimating a $340 million annual EBITDA contribution if Flutter captures a 25% share of Kalshi parlays, which is significant compared with Flutter's $970 million fiscal 2026 US EBITDA guidance. Jefferies also highlighted potential upside from FanDuel Predicts, estimated to contribute an additional $150 million in EBITDA over the coming years, and pointed to potential regulatory benefits. Ahead of Flutter's Q2 results, Jefferies expects the company could deliver its first US EBITDA beat in a year, forecasting Q2 US EBITDA of $126 million, 21% above company guidance and 24% above consensus expectations. Shares of Flutter traded up 3% at $109 on Tuesday afternoon, down almost 50% so far in the year to date.
Flutter Entertainment plc
Jefferies Financial Group Inc